Growth is expected to double to 2% in 2020, according to the projections, based on household consumption and investment.
São Paulo - The figures of Gross Domestic Product (Schedule) Third quarter, divulgados pelo IBGE nesta terça-feira (03), They left them more confident economists on the acceleration of activity in the country.
Besides that, there was upward revision of data 2018 and the first quarters of the year, signaling a better result also in the next year.
"A GDP-faced 2% in 2020 It starts to get very possible. Lest have to have some tragedy, a very negative shock ", says Silvia Matos, coordinator Bulletin Macro of the Brazilian Institute of Economics (Ibra / FGV).
The Ibre revised its forecast for the year of 1,1% for 1,2%. Goldman Sachs already revised from 1% for 1,2% economic growth in 2019 s 2,2% for 2,3% it 2020.
The assessment is that this growth is folded relatively "hired", that is: It does not include large negative or positive shocks, as it will be difficult to advance structural reforms in an election year and the government's political difficulties.
The MB Associados, on the other hand, He preferred to keep its high forecast 1,6% for next year. "The result (the Q3) He encouraged those who were more pessimistic. Our Concern 2020 external scene is focused on, which has many risks still. Do not discount growth may reach 2%, what we will only know when the international risk cool ", says Sergio Vale, chief economist at MB.
What is good: consumption and construction
In general, the growth of the Brazilian economy has been driven by the expansion of household consumption and business investment.
"It's a better quality growth, that depends more on private demand than the contribution of public spending ", says Alberto Ramos, economista-chefe para América Latina do Goldman Sachs.
Household consumption, which is the main component for the demand side with 65% stir START, cresceu pelo décimo trimestre seguido e vem se acelerando ao longo dos trimestres deste ano.
"And it will be even stronger in the fourth quarter. The story continues and consumption are helping to give the pace of growth, to the weight that has ", says Silvia.
Low inflation, lower interest rates, credit expansion and improvement in the labor market, albeit very informally supported, They are seen as responsible for this move.
"This is not a double dip; It is a well-sustained growth ", says Claudio considered, research associate of Ibre / FGV.
Another positive surprise in the third quarter was the construction sector, que subiu 4,4% on year, the second consecutive rise after twenty quarters of decline.
"I prefer to look at it with some thriller, because the IBGE has systematically reviewed the industry's numbers down. But it is nonetheless indicate a strong recovery in construction, which is an activity that employs a lot of people ", Considers says.
The sector's performance helped make private investment progressed 2,9% the same comparison, the eighth positive result after fourteen retreat quarters:
"It shows a certain confidence in the entrepreneur in the future", Considers says. Apesar disso a taxa de investimento no terceiro trimestre ficou estável em relação ao ano anterior, in the range of 16,3% stir START.
Ramos, do Goldman, recalls that private investment is still, in historical perspective, the beginning of a recovery.
"The indicator had the absolutely extraordinary contraction during the recession 2015 e 2016, a decline of almost 30%. There is still a lot of room to move, but this will only happen when the sentiment improve a little bit more and when demand also increase ", says.
Remember that the Brazilian economy is operating well below its peak, recorded in early 2014, according to the projection Andre Perfect, chief economist at brokerage Necton.
What is wrong: external demand and government consumption
Economic activity in the country continues to be pulled down by weakness in external demand and government consumption.
Silvia estimates that without the shock of the dam breaking tragedy in Brumadinho and the crisis in Argentina, the growth of the Brazilian economy could have stayed between 1,5% e 2% already this year.
To Argentina, one of the main trade partners of Brazil and buyers of our manufacturing sector, should see its economy shrink 3% in 2019 and more 1,5% in 2020, according to the latest forecasts.
As exportações brasileiras de forma geral caíram 5,5% and on annual basis 2,8% the quarterly, enquanto as importações cresceram 2,9% and on annual basis 2,2% the quarterly.
Although the increase in imports is natural at a time of economic boom, the contribution of the external sector to GDP has been negative.
The uncertainty generated by the trade war between the US and China, as well as the slowdown of major economies of the world, also contribute to this scenario.
Since government consumption depressed follows, com queda de 0,4% em relação ao trimestre imediatamente anterior e 1,4% on year.
The difficulty of public accounts, continued fiscal adjustment and strong rigidity budget, with 94% expenses required by law, It suggests that this scenario is unlikely to change anytime soon.